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Mean reversion

When CCI crosses 100, is a trend starting or a reversion starting?

CCI extreme reversion · CCI extremes

What it bets

Both readings exist, so one of them has to be chosen first. The reversion reading bets that CCI, after leaving the zero line, will come back near zero.

How the rule is written

Donald Lambert's commodity channel index measures how far typical price sits from its mean, in units tied to mean absolute deviation. Plus 100 and minus 100 are the scale he offered as a habit. A reversion system looks for shorts above +100 and longs below -100, with the zero line as the target. A with-trend system treats a cross above +100 as the start of a rise. The same number, two opposite rules.

When it fails

If the rule never says whether it is reversion or with-trend, a backtest can pick whichever reading looks better. That is not one method.

Do not confuse it with

Bollinger bands also split into fading a band touch and trading the expansion. CCI splits the same way. This entry means the reversion. For the with-trend breakout, look in the breakout family.

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